THE YEAR 2040 by N.K.
Remember the year “ 2040 “, even though it hasn’t come yet. For this will be
a very important date, and will determine whether or not civilization as we
know changes for the worse.
Why? Because, as most experts agree, around 2040 oil production will peak.
Yes, oil, the fossil fuel that runs 40% of the world’s energy ( and 96% of
its transportation )(1) will be much, much less abundant. We won’t
necessarily have fished out all the world’s black gold, but the supply will
be much less than the demand. The concern of running out of oil has been in
the back of the world’s mind for some time now; our discovery of new oil
fields peaked in 1962 (2), and one only need look at the rising price of
gasoline to know that something’s amiss beyond just inflation.
And it’s only going to get worse. Though the upper class that runs the
country will be able to pay for oil and oil-related products, as typical the
middle class will suffer by being unable to afford oil. This not only means
gasoline, but all petroleum based products and services; plastic, artificial
rubber, fertilizer, paints, lubricants, medicines, heating oil, some
electricity etc. ad infinitum. All will get more expensive, and it will be
harder for most of us to afford all of them. Things could get messy, because
without enough oil in the world, oil-based economies like America could
collapse.
Any solutions involving getting more oil are short-term at best. We could
always open up the Alaskan National Wildlife Reserve for drilling, but the
billions of barrels of oil believed to be under there wouldn’t last that
long. We could fight countries for war over possession of oil, but that also
has its limits ( as well as the potential to piss off the majority of the
world even more and have a high cost in human lives ). And we could keep
importing oil from the mostly shady Middle East, but even that will run out
eventually.
The only solution to the problem that isn’t a temporary fix inevitably
resulting in economic collapse is to research alternative energy sources.
There are many different ways to get energy to power our day-to-day lives;
solar, wind, biomass, hydrogen fuel cells, even steam. None of these are
perfect; they all have their own flaws, be it the slow pace of collecting
energy from the sun, the unsightliness of windmills ( not to mention the
avian fatalities ), or the difficulty and inefficiency of processing
hydrogen. But these alternatives are better than their alternative.
To the younger generation, I say this; don’t grow complacent about the
apparent 35-40 years of oil we have left before the wells start to dry up.
Listen closely to what your politicians say, and lend your support to those
who promise to put money and time towards new kinds of power. Depending on
how much focus our scientists put towards alternative energy, the time
between when a more diverse energy economy is fantasy and when it is fact
can lessen.
To the older generation, I say something more inflammatory; thanks a whole
bloody lot for your collective dependence on a dwindling fuel source. But
it’s not too late to change things. In the few decades we have left, we can
change our ways. We can look towards newer, cleaner fuels, and we can cut
back on the oil we’re using now. We can move towards the future and leave
the oil in the ground. Or we can keep wallowing in our fossil fuels and face
the consequences when the big 4-0 catches up to us.
REFERENCES
1.) Statistics taken from Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (
www.iags.org )
2.) Statistics taken from Oil and the Future (
www.eco-action.org/dt/oilfut.html )
NEIL KAPIT
